Seperac UBE Score Estimator (updated June 2017)
Using data from past NY BOLE and NCBE studies, the following calculator will estimate UBE bar exam scores based on the demographic and grade information you enter. These statistics will either make you feel more confident or remind you that more work needs to be put into the exam. As one passing Feb 2017 examinee told me: "I received my ube score report today and the ube score was on the dot to what your calculator predicted! That's insane! The mbe was off a bit, but still! ... The calculator did ease my fears a good bit. I'm still a worrier by nature so I still worried, but it really did help. It allowed me to think, in the back of my mind, that I'd be ok."Another passing F17 examinee told me: "I think the score estimate was helpful in calming me and giving me a sense of confidence." Currently, the NCBE and NYBOLE data I rely on is not broken down based on law school tier and this is probably the biggest reason why the UBE Score Estimator may be imprecise for domestic examinees – T1 and T2 examinees should expect to see exam scores higher than the below estimate while T3 and T4 examinees should expect scores lower than the calculator's estimate. I plan to adjust the calculator to better reflect this in the future once I collect more data. If you have taken other bar exams, but are taking a certain exam for the first time, you should put "1" for number of bar attempts since bar examiners generally base their statistics on an examinee’s first attempt at that specific exam.
The calculator will predict a "PASS", "FAIL" or "TOO CLOSE TO CALL" based on the expected total score for the average examinee in that demographic. Please keep in mind that these statistics are merely estimates (as you can see from the two standard deviation statistics, scores can vary widely, meaning that even if the average examinee in that demographic is predicted to fail, an above-average examinee in that demographic may not). Your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE. The wide range of scores for a particular demographic is likely due to the amount of time an examinee puts into studying for the exam and their ability to score well on the MBE. Doing well on the MBE involves a combination of knowledge and test-taking skills (and skills require drills). Unless you have a solid base for both (e.g. recent law school graduate and/or good test taker based on LSAT, MPRE, LPGA), developing this knowledge and skill takes a lot of time, especially for lower ability examinees – thus if you don’t have a lot of time to spend studying/practicing for the MBE, it is hard to do well on it. While study for the other components of the exam can be “abbreviated” to some extent, MBE study/practice really can’t be given short-shrift, nor can MBE answers be “bluffed” as with the MEE/MPT.
CAVEAT: This calculator is less accurate for foreign examinees and for multiple re-takers. The calculator determines the mean total score for a particular demographic and then adjusts based on other criteria such as MPRE/UGPA/LSAT/LPGA. For foreign examinees, the only adjustment that can be made is with the MPRE. However, foreign examinee generally have a pass rate of 50% or less on the bar exam (meaning these examinees are more likely to fail the exam than pass it). Since foreign examinee demographic means are usually below passing, with the absense of other adjustments, the calculator often has the average foreign examinee failing the exam. For multiple re-takers, there is simply not a lot of data from NCBE or the state bar examiners. Once I collect more data, I expect future iterations of this calculator to be more accurate. However, as discussed above, your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE.
The results should automatically update when you enter/change a selection. After you enter your information, if you also enter your email address and then press the Submit button, this information will be sent to me for data compilation purposes (I will then follow up with you after the exam to see how closely the predicted results matched the actual results - I will not use your email for any other purpose than to follow up on these results with a single email to you after results are released - I will never send a second request email or spam you in any way). By submitting your information and letting me follow-up, your input will help improve the accuracy of the calculator for future examinees (and I will give you some statistics on your scores to tell you how you did). Please note that as a fairly new calculator, there may be some calculation errors, so if you see a result that appears incorrect, please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
If you take the exam and think you may not have passed (especially if you are an at-risk demographic), I suggest you complete my Post Exam form. Filling out this form immediately after you take the exam (while the information is still fresh in your mind) can help you later. For example, using this information, I track the key details of your attempt, so if you later find that you failed the exam, I will try to match your responses/statistics to whoever previously submitted the most comparable details (and later passed) to give you their advice on what worked for them.