Seperac UBE Score Estimator (updated June 2018)
Using data from past NY BOLE and NCBE studies, the following calculator will estimate UBE bar exam scores based on the demographic and grade information you enter. As one passing examinee told me: "I received my ube score report today and the ube score was on the dot to what your calculator predicted! That's insane! The mbe was off a bit, but still! ... The calculator did ease my fears a good bit. I'm still a worrier by nature so I still worried, but it really did help. It allowed me to think, in the back of my mind, that I'd be ok." Another passing examinee told me: "I think the score estimate was helpful in calming me and giving me a sense of confidence."
This is the 3rd iteration of the calculator. Recent enhancements include adjustments based on law school tier (for domestic examinees) and country of education for Foreign examinees. If you have taken other bar exams, but are taking a certain exam for the first time, you should put "1" for number of bar attempts since bar examiners generally base their statistics on an examinee’s first attempt at that specific exam.
The MBE and UBE score estimates are reasonably accurate – for the estimated scaled MBE score, the calculator's maximum deviation was +12/-9 with an average deviation of -0.4 while for the estimated total UBE score, the calculator's maximum deviation was +28/-23 with an average deviation of -2.6 based on responses to date. These statistics will either make you feel more confident or remind you that more work needs to be put into the exam.
However, please note that even with the recent enhancements, the estimates are less accurate (and possibly misleading) for foreign examinees and multiple re-takers because there is less released data for these demographics. The calculator determines the mean total score for a particular demographic and then adjusts based on other criteria such as MPRE/UGPA/LSAT/LPGA. For foreign examinees, the only adjustment that can be made is with the MPRE and Foreign Country (Canada, Australia, China, etc). However, foreign examinee generally have a pass rate of 50% or less on the bar exam (meaning these examinees are more likely to fail the exam than pass it). Since foreign examinee demographic means are usually below passing, with the absense of other adjustments, the calculator often has the average foreign examinee failing the exam. For multiple re-takers, there is simply not a lot of data from NCBE or the state bar examiners. Once I collect more data, I expect future iterations of this calculator to be more accurate. However, as discussed above, your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE. I hope after a few more iterations, the calculator will do a better job with predicting outcomes for foreign examinees, but even looking at First Time Foreign examinees in July, they are still generally more likely to fail than to pass (which means the projected score will be below 266 rather than above it).
The calculator will predict a "PASS", "FAIL" or "TOO CLOSE TO CALL" based on the expected total score for the average examinee in that demographic. Please keep in mind that these statistics are merely estimates (as you can see from the two standard deviation statistics that I email you, scores can vary widely, meaning that even if the average examinee in that demographic is predicted to fail, an above-average examinee in that demographic may not). Your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE. The wide range of scores for a particular demographic is likely due to the amount of time an examinee puts into studying for the exam and their ability to score well on the MBE. Doing well on the MBE involves a combination of knowledge and test-taking skills (and skills require drills). Unless you have a solid base for both (e.g. recent law school graduate and/or good test taker based on LSAT, MPRE, LPGA), developing this knowledge and skill takes a lot of time, especially for lower ability examinees – thus if you don’t have a lot of time to spend studying/practicing for the MBE, it is hard to do well on it. While study for the other components of the exam can be “abbreviated” to some extent, MBE study/practice really can’t be given short-shrift, nor can MBE answers be “bluffed” as with the MEE/MPT.
The results should automatically update when you enter/change a selection. Please note that as a fairly new calculator, there may be some calculation errors, so if you see a result that appears incorrect, please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
If you take the exam and think you may not have passed (especially if you are an at-risk demographic), I suggest you complete my Post Exam form. Filling out this form immediately after you take the exam (while the information is still fresh in your mind) can help you later. For example, using this information, I track the key details of your attempt, so if you later find that you failed the exam, I will try to match your responses/statistics to whoever previously submitted the most comparable details (and later passed) to give you their advice on what worked for them.