Seperac UBE Score Estimator (updated June 2017)

Using data from past NY BOLE and NCBE studies, the following calculator will estimate UBE bar exam scores based on the demographic and grade information you enter. These statistics will either make you feel more confident or remind you that more work needs to be put into the exam. As one passing Feb 2017 examinee told me: "I received my ube score report today and the ube score was on the dot to what your calculator predicted! That's insane! The mbe was off a bit, but still! ... The calculator did ease my fears a good bit. I'm still a worrier by nature so I still worried, but it really did help. It allowed me to think, in the back of my mind, that I'd be ok."Another passing F17 examinee told me: "I think the score estimate was helpful in calming me and giving me a sense of confidence." After the February 2017 UBE exam, I followed up with examinees who included their email and submitted the form. Of the 12 examinees that responded (hoping for 50+ for J17), the average difference between predicted MBE and actual MBE was -0.3 (estimated MBE averaged 145.3 versus actual MBEs averaged 145). The largest differences were +12/-9 for the MBE score. The average difference between predicted total UBE score and actual total UBE score was -3 (estimated total UBE averaged 291.6 versus actual total UBE averaged 288.6). The largest differences were +28/-23 for the total UBE score. For First-Time Domestic candidates, the PASS/FAIL determination was correct 100% of the time.

The calculator will predict a "PASS", "FAIL" or "TOO CLOSE TO CALL" based on the expected total score for the average examinee in that demographic. Please keep in mind that these statistics are merely estimates (as you can see from the two standard deviation statistics, scores can vary widely, meaning that even if the average examinee in that demographic is predicted to fail, an above-average examinee in that demographic may not). Your MBE practice scores, assuming the MBE practice questions are of sufficient difficulty and representative of the topics tested, will give you the most insight as to whether or not you will pass the UBE. The wide range of scores for a particular demographic is likely due to the amount of time an examinee puts into studying for the exam and their ability to score well on the MBE. Doing well on the MBE involves a combination of knowledge and test-taking skills (and skills require drills). Unless you have a solid base for both (e.g. recent law school graduate and/or good test taker based on LSAT, MPRE, LPGA), developing this knowledge and skill takes a lot of time, especially for lower ability examinees – thus if you don’t have a lot of time to spend studying/practicing for the MBE, it is hard to do well on it. While study for the other components of the exam can be “abbreviated” to some extent, MBE study/practice really can’t be given short-shrift, nor can MBE answers be “bluffed” as with the MEE/MPT.

CAVEAT: This calculator is less accurate for foreign examinees and for multiple re-takers. The calculator determines the mean total score for a particular demographic and then adjusts based on other criteria such as MPRE/UGPA/LSAT/LPGA. For foreign examinees, the only adjustment that can be made is with the MPRE. However, foreign examinee demographic means are usually below passing, so with the absense of other adjustments, the calculator often has foreign examinees failing the exam. For multiple re-takers, there is simply not a lot of data from NYBOLE and NCBE. Once I collect more data, I expect future iterations of this calculator to be more accurate.

The results should automatically update when you enter/change a selection. After you enter your information, if you also enter your email address and then press the Submit button, this information will be sent to me for data compilation purposes (I will then follow up with you after the exam to see how closely the predicted results matched the actual results - I will not use your email for any other purpose than to follow up on these results with a single email to you after results are released - I will never send a second request email or spam you in any way). By submitting your information and letting me follow-up, your input will help improve the accuracy of the calculator for future examinees (and I will give you some statistics on your scores to tell you how you did). Please note that as a fairly new calculator, there may be some calculation errors, so if you see a result that appears incorrect, please email me at joe@seperac.com.

If you take the exam and think you may not have passed (especially if you are an at-risk demographic), I suggest you complete my Post Exam form. Filling out this form immediately after you take the exam (while the information is still fresh in your mind) can help you later. For example, using this information, I track the key details of your attempt, so if you later find that you failed the exam, I will try to match your responses/statistics to whoever previously submitted the most comparable details (and later passed) to give you their advice on what worked for them.

             
  Email Address    
  Exam Administration    
  UBE State    
  Domestic Educated or Foreign Educated:    
  Gender:    
  Racial/Ethnic Group    
  Bar attempt # (e.g. 1 if your first for this exam, 2 if your 2nd):    
  MPRE (highest score)    
  UGPA (if attended college in U.S.):    
  LSAT (highest score)    
  LGPA (overall)    
  Age at Law School Graduation:    
 
  Estimated scaled MBE score on the upcoming exam    
  Estimated total UBE score on the upcoming exam    
  UBE State Passing Score    
  Estimated Pass/Fail on the upcoming exam    
 
  NYBOLE released studies of the July 2005 and Feb 2006 exams which examined the impact of the increase in the passing score on the New York Bar Examination, and the following demographic profile statistics are applicable to you. See http://www.nybarexam.org/press/ncberep.pdf and http://www.nybarexam.org/press/nyrep_feb06.pdf  
   
   
 
   
   
   
   
 
   
   
   
   
 
   
   
   
   
 
   
   
   
   
 
   
   
   
   
   
   
 
   
   
 
   
   
 
   
   
   
 
   
   
   
 
   
   
   
 
   
   
   
 

 

 


If you have any additional questions or comments, please email me at joe@seperac.com.

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